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"
Essays on Modeling Derivative Claims
"
Document Type
:
Latin Dissertation
Language of Document
:
English
Record Number
:
149778
Doc. No
:
ET21570
Main Entry
:
Milena Todorova
Title Proper
:
Essays on Modeling Derivative Claims
Note
:
This document is digital این مدرک بصورت الکترونیکی می باشد
Abstract
:
The paper analyzes the price dynamics of two commodity futures prices - crude oil and natural gas. Someof the latest models of commodity prices are tested here -the two-factor model of Schwartz - Smith (2000),which nests other important models developed earlier. The two-factor model includes a mean-revertingshort-term deviation and uncertain equilibrium level to which prices gravitate. The Schwartz-Smith two-factor model is the base case model in the paper.The model parameters of the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model are estimated from traded htures on naturalgas and crude oil, using the fixed maturity format I create for futures prices. Analysis of the variancestructure of natural gas prices suggests seasonality. The model is estimated on seasonally adjusted data.Model-based seasonality approaches are developed - seasonal dummies and a three-factor model with astochastic seasonality component of log spot prices. The prediction ability of the various parameterized andnon-parameterized versions of models with seasonality is compared in-sample and out-of-sample. Thetested for theQ1 PC1 bus cardBoth these projects mere sofixare des elopment efforts tonards contributing to dlfferentaspects of Roboucs and lZ1echatronics projects m the Controls and Roboucs Group..
Subject
:
Electericl tess
:
برق
electronic file name
:
TL44744.pdf
Title and statement of responsibility and
:
Essays on Modeling Derivative Claims [Thesis]
http://localhost/site/catalogue/149778
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TL44744.pdf
TL44744.pdf
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